The Defense Intelligence Agency's 2025 report decisively underscores “Critical and Immediate Nature of Transnational Terrorist Threats”.

Source: CSIS

The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has officially released the unclassified version of its 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment, laying bare the pressing national security challenges that the United States faces.

The 2025 Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) serves as the authoritative evaluation from the Intelligence Community (IC), detailing the myriad threats to U.S. citizens, the homeland, and American interests around the globe. DEFCON tweeted on X:-

The report lays out a stark summary of a world growing more dangerous, complex, and technologically volatile. The report begins:

“The United States is confronting an increasingly complex national security threat environment. In addition to traditional military modernization, developments in artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, quantum sciences, microelectronics, space, cyber, and unmanned systems are rapidly transforming the nature of conflict and the global threat landscape. Our adversaries are deepening cooperation, often lending military, diplomatic, and economic support to each other’s conflicts and operations, to circumvent U.S. instruments of power. Transnational criminal organizations and terrorist groups are exploiting geostrategic conditions to evade authorities. Advanced technology also is enabling foreign intelligence services to target our personnel and activities in new ways. The rapid pace of innovation will only accelerate in the coming years, continually generating means for our adversaries to threaten U.S. interests.”

The report dictates that a wide array of foreign actors is actively targeting U.S. health, critical infrastructure, industries, and government, while state adversaries relentlessly strive to undermine U.S. economic and military power.

Transnational and terrorist criminal organizations pose immediate, significant threats. Drug cartels are responsible for over 52,000 U.S. deaths from synthetic opioids in the past year and have facilitated nearly three million illegal migrant arrivals in 2024.

Furthermore, cyber and intelligence actors are aggressively targeting U.S. wealth and infrastructure, with non-state groups relying on support from state actors like China and Pakistan. These adversaries possess advanced weapons capable of striking U.S. territory and disrupting critical systems in space, resulting in a vastly more complex and dangerous security environment.

Countries such as Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are mounting direct challenges to U.S. interests. They employ both asymmetric and conventional tactics to threaten others and actively promote alternative systems in trade and security to counter U.S. influence. Their increasing cooperation enhances their resilience against the United States, heightening the risk of expanded hostilities.

The 2025 ATA report underscores a firm commitment to keeping the U.S. Congress and the American public informed about these critical security threats.

The National Intelligence Council has robustly collaborated with various IC components and external partners to deliver strategic insights into these complex issues. This assessment categorizes threats by actor, beginning with non-state actors and advancing to state-sponsored threats.

Transnational Criminals and Terrorists

Transnational criminals, terrorists, and other non-state actors pose significant and immediate threats to U.S. citizens, undermining national security and prosperity. Transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) are directly responsible for the production and trafficking of large quantities of illicit drugs, severely endangering American lives. They also engage in a range of illegal activities, such as human trafficking, cyber operations, money laundering, and inciting violence, that further challenge U.S. security.

U.S. citizens confront increasingly complex and decentralized terrorist threats from designated foreign terrorist organizations like ISIS and al-Qaida, alongside individual terrorists and drug cartels. Additionally, large-scale illegal immigration strains national resources and facilitates the entry of known or suspected terrorists into the country.

Illegal Drug Traffickers

Transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) and terrorist groups operating in the Western Hemisphere are exacerbating regional instability and fueling the ongoing opioid crisis.

Fentanyl and other synthetic opioids represent the deadliest drugs trafficked into the U.S., causing over 52,000 deaths in the year ending October 2024.

Despite being a stark figure, this marks a nearly 33% decrease from the previous year, largely due to improved access to naloxone, which highlights the urgent need for continued action.

1. Mexico-based TCOs, including the Sinaloa Cartel and the New Generation Jalisco Cartel, dominate the U.S. illicit drug market. The U.S.-Mexico border serves as the primary entry point for these drugs, and these organizations will likely adapt their smuggling tactics in response to increased U.S. border security.

2. Since 2020, the rise of independent fentanyl producers in Mexico has fragmented the fentanyl trade. These opportunistic producers, attracted by the drug's high profitability and low barriers to entry, are reshaping the landscape of drug trafficking.

3. Colombian TCOs remain the principal producers and exporters of cocaine to the U.S., and their activities contribute to rising violence and migration in the region.

4. In Mexico, TCOs have escalated violent attacks against rivals and security forces using improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Nearly 1,600 such attacks were reported in 2024, a staggering increase from just three in 2020-2021. This alarming trend demonstrates a significant threat to security forces and a transformation of Mexico's security landscape.

5. China is the primary source of illicit fentanyl precursor chemicals. Mexican brokers are adept at evading international controls, utilizing mislabeled shipments and acquiring unregulated chemicals. Immediate and decisive measures are needed to counter these threats effectively.

Transnational Islamic Terrorism

ISIS’s aggressive branches, particularly ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K), are actively targeting the West, including the United States, through strategic online propaganda designed to inspire and enable attacks.

Despite facing significant setbacks such as the loss of its physical caliphate in 2019 and the elimination of key leaders in recent years, ISIS remains the largest and most formidable Islamic terrorist organization.

Recent incidents, including the New Year’s Day attack in New Orleans and the arrest of an Afghan national plotting an Election Day attack, underscore ISIS’s capacity to inspire domestic attacks within the U.S.

ISIS-K stands as the group’s most capable branch for executing external terrorist operations, with explicit intentions to extend its reach into South and Central Asia.

Its recent mass casualty attacks in Russia and Iran in 2024, along with arrests in Europe and the U.S., illustrate its growing influence beyond South Asia.

The organization will undoubtedly exploit the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria to rebuild its operational capabilities and liberate prisoners, enhancing its ranks.

1. Al-Qa‘ida remains resolute in its intent to target the United States and its citizens through various global affiliates. Its leaders, some operating from Iran, are actively exploiting anti-Israeli sentiment stemming from the Gaza conflict to incite attacks against both Israel and the U.S. Their media apparatus has issued provocative statements supporting Hamas and calling for assaults on these targets.

2. Al-Qa‘ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has aggressively revived its Inspire guide, which explicitly encourages attacks against Jewish, U.S., and European targets. This resource provides bomb-making instructions and ideological justifications for violence, demonstrating AQAP’s commitment to inspiring global attacks and conducting operations regionally.

3. Al-Shabaab, al-Qa‘ida’s wealthiest affiliate, is ramping up its focus on Somalia while also funneling funds to al-Qa‘ida operations elsewhere. Its growing partnership with the Houthi movement significantly enhances access to sophisticated weaponry, escalating the threat to U.S. interests in the region.

4. In West Africa, al-Qa‘ida is decisively expanding its territorial control through engagement and intimidation of civilians, posing a direct threat to urban centers in Burkina Faso and Mali, where U.S. personnel are stationed.

5. In Syria, Hurras al-Din is strategically positioning itself to capitalize on the potential collapse of the Assad regime. Despite public claims from al-Qa‘ida leadership to dissolve the group, members have been instructed to remain armed and prepare for ongoing conflicts against their enemies. Other terrorist organizations with historical ties to al-Qa‘ida present a significant threat, primarily in their local areas, with ongoing assaults on governments. Hezbollah continues to prioritize targeting Israeli and Jewish individuals. The U.S. Government is actively collaborating with global partners to thwart attacks on its citizens while vigilantly monitoring any shifts that may indicate a drift toward transnational threats.

6. In South Asia, especially Pakistan, “the chickens are coming home to roost”, their terror organization, which Pakistan Army and its intelligence agency ISI have created and fed for decades, among which is Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) is currently fixated on attacking Pakistan, while others, Pakistan-sponsored anti-India Transnational terror groups such as Lashkar-e Tayyiba (LeT), The Resistance Front(TRF), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM), Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM), indisputably pose risks due to their historical ties with al-Qa‘ida. Hence, all these Transnational terror groups’ longstanding connections to al-Qa‘ida create substantial concerns about potential future threats.

7. Furthermore, ISIS is decisively expanding in Africa, with ISIS-Somalia doubling in size, ISIS-West Africa leading in the number of claimed attacks, and ISIS-Sahel extending its reach into coastal West Africa.

When contacted on this report, Arthur Kapoor, Chairman of the American Hindu Jewish Congress (AHJC), expressed disbelief at how unmanned systems could potentially surveil and threaten the U.S. homeland, including critical infrastructure and military installations. Arthur also raised concerns about how the maturation and convergence of these systems with other technologies, such as AI, big data, the Internet of Things, and 5G telecommunications, could exacerbate this threat

Challenges Ahead

Transnational criminals are aggressively exploiting corruption, intimidation, and advanced technologies to expand their illegal operations and diversify their income streams. This strategy significantly bolsters their resilience against U.S. and international law enforcement efforts.

Transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) are systematically defrauding U.S. citizens and laundering billions of dollars through both domestic and international financial institutions. They routinely outsource money laundering to individuals with legal and banking expertise to circumvent financial regulations.

Cybercriminals are relentlessly targeting inadequately protected U.S. institutions, including healthcare systems and municipal governments, posing serious threats to the economy and public well-being. In mid-2024, ransomware attacks struck the largest payment processor in the healthcare sector, disrupting essential services and forcing ambulances to divert patients.

Additionally, U.S. water infrastructure has become a prime target for cyberattacks. In October 2024, multiple water utilities were compromised, likely inspired by prior incidents involving Russian and Iranian actors.

Human traffickers are ruthlessly exploiting vulnerable populations, luring them with false promises of employment and coercing them into labor and sex trafficking.

Mexican TCOs are particularly notorious for targeting migrants en route to the U.S., subjecting them to kidnapping, forced labor, and debt bondage. The number of migrants attempting to enter the U.S. has drastically declined since January 2025, primarily due to strengthened border security. Law enforcement encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border dropped by 14 percent in 2024, with apprehensions in January 2025 plummeting by 85 percent compared to the previous year.

Guatemalan, Mexican, and Venezuelan nationals represent the majority of those encountered. Changes in immigration laws in transit countries, such as Nicaragua’s elimination of visa requirements for travelers, can abruptly trigger spikes in migration toward the U.S. It is imperative that these issues are addressed with urgency and effectiveness.

The time for action is now; we must remain vigilant and prepared to address these urgent challenges head-on.

Ankush Bhandari is Policy Director at American Hindu Jewish Congress.